tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-27290920.post6934621741712512193..comments2024-01-06T03:54:46.267-05:00Comments on the sceptical futuryst: The Unthinkable and the UnimaginableStuart Candyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11847397597090443677noreply@blogger.comBlogger11125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-27290920.post-24573916597117615332010-04-18T17:52:35.231-04:002010-04-18T17:52:35.231-04:00Great question, Chris, on a very important topic. ...Great question, Chris, on a very important topic. One of the chapters of my PhD dissertation deals with the ethical dimension of this work.<br /><br />First consider the sorts of questions that relate to more common sites of rhetoric and persuasion, such as advertising, or political speechmaking. There are grounds for concern about falsehood, opinion or arbitrary ideological preference being presented as fact, or about people being talked into acting against their better interests. Similar issues apply to futures practice across the board (as you seemed to intuit), not just the experiential stuff. Although there, the potential for misleading, false, ideological, or propagandistic practice is perhaps that much more dramatic, literally.<br /><br />It seems to me that there are at least two sets of ethical issues -- especially with experiential scenarios, because of the deliberately increased vividness or immediacy with which they "present" futures. One has to do with the dimension of possibility (including probability), that is, to what extent staging a scenario experientially might distort perceptions of potential, making stuff seem significantly more or less likely than it really is. The other has to do with the dimension of preferability, that is, where a scenario is presented so as to engender a certain kind of affective response -- anger, revulsion, eager anticipation...<br /><br />In either case, probably the biggest concern would be (as in the other example domains of advertising and politics) where there's an intention to manipulate or deceive for selfish gain or to cause harm. But there's grey area when it comes to using experiential means to try to share a genuine belief or concern about a future scenario, in other words to activate an audience around one's sincere point of view. No dishonesty in that case, but there's still of course the potential for distortion on either the possibility or preferability fronts, or both.<br /><br />An experience about encouraging exploration is likely to run less ethical risk than one intended to persuade. Exploration here means helping people to become aware of and query their own perceptions, and to draw their own conclusions, as opposed to leading them to a particular point of view. One way of activating exploration is through manifesting multiple scenarios, giving competing theories of the future their due, enabling people to consider and weigh multiple alternatives simultaneously. An experiential scenario intended to persuade obviously has a more directive agenda. By no means does that make it unethical, but it probably does make it more likely to be controversial. Take the recent <a href="http://futuryst.blogspot.com/2009/12/climate-of-regret.html" rel="nofollow">billboard campaign</a> urging global leaders to consider their legacy at the Copenhagen Climate Conference: to me that was a deeply ethical intervention. Someone unconvinced about the risks of climate change, on the other hand, would surely disagree. <br /><br />Anyway the short answer to your question is no, there is no formal code of ethics in the futures field. In the absence of a systematic professional accreditation and disciplining system (like that for lawyers or accountants) it's hard to see how one could be implemented. And the wisdom and practicability of such a system has been much debated. (Note, by the way, that in volume 2 of the book by Wendell Bell I recommended earlier, he calls for a <a href="http://books.google.com/books?id=wQufBy91hqQC&pg=PA157" rel="nofollow">code of ethics for futurists</a> (pp. 157-166), but this deals more with the ethics of professional and consulting relationships than underlying epistemic dilemmas.)<br /><br />In any case, even if there were such a code it would not make the challenge go away: these dilemmas are built in to in the DNA of the work, of rendering imagined futures in more concrete form.<br /><br />Thanks for the question, Chris, and I hope this helps.Stuart Candyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11847397597090443677noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-27290920.post-717678908504334502010-04-16T21:43:59.681-04:002010-04-16T21:43:59.681-04:00Stuart,
This might be a rather stupid question, b...Stuart,<br /><br />This might be a rather stupid question, but after reading some more into futures, mainly papers written by Jim Dator, I’ve began wondering about whether or not there is some sort of code of ethics for the invention & use of experiential futures. It seems to me that futures, like those you’ve been a part of, are a powerful rhetorical device, not that futures are necessarily aimed at ultimately persuading individuals to side with a particular argument, but nevertheless I’m still curious to know if there is something along the lines of Quintilian’s “a good man speaking well.” I can’t help but think that experiential futures can, and probably have been abused by those trying to further their own preferred future – I’m in no way suggesting you have done this. However, there is undeniably an ability within this field to propagandize groups of people through emotions & false logic – any number of past dictators could’ve implemented experiential futures as a means to their ends. I’m sure that this question is cliché & simplistic, but please be patient with me, as I’m merely trying to grasp the concepts. <br /><br />Thanks,<br /><br />Chris<br /><br />P.S. if you'd like to reply to me via email feel free to do so - I'd hate to fill your page with my ramblings....csrobisch@student.cccs.educrobischhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13006827617300997907noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-27290920.post-68876632603214780232010-04-14T01:37:39.793-04:002010-04-14T01:37:39.793-04:00Thanks, I appreciate the information! I found Jim ...Thanks, I appreciate the information! I found Jim Dator's POLS 171 syllabus the other day, and I've read several of his papers. Futures has definitely sparked an interest that I didn't expect! I'm going to attempt to locate those books, and I'll most likely take you up on the offer of answering my questions. <br /><br />Thanks again,<br /><br />Chriscrobischhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13006827617300997907noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-27290920.post-65234453196683723422010-04-12T19:23:06.835-04:002010-04-12T19:23:06.835-04:00Hi Chris, glad to hear this struck a chord with yo...Hi Chris, glad to hear this struck a chord with you. <br /><br />For more on futures studies generally, I'd suggest checking out Jim Dator's introductory futures course POLS 171 -- the syllabus is <a href="http://www.futures.hawaii.edu/academics.php" rel="nofollow">here</a>, together with those for Dator's other classes. Some of the articles and books listed there can be found pretty easily on the web, while for others you might need to do a bit more legwork. (Actually, I think POLS 171 can still be taken online in its entirety.)<br /><br />If you have access to a university library, try to locate Wendell Bell's "Foundations of Futures Studies", or Richard Slaughter's "Knowledge Base of Futures Studies" -- both good, multi-volume introductory texts.<br /><br />For more on "experiential futures" specifically, this blog should provide the introductory material you're after.<br /><br />If any of this raises further questions, hit me up again.Stuart Candyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11847397597090443677noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-27290920.post-31199161799468288112010-04-10T20:33:47.986-04:002010-04-10T20:33:47.986-04:00I was on UH's poli sci page the other day, and...I was on UH's poli sci page the other day, and came across the futures studies program. I had never heard of this field before, and the description like a course in imagination and speculation. Needless to say, I was left feeling as though it was merely meaningful within academia. However, stumbling across your lecture made me understand how important experiential futures is to the collective society. I'm thoroughly interested and inspired to learn more! Can you suggest anymore lectures, articles, or books that can help me understand futures even more?<br /><br />Thanks<br /><br />Chriscrobischhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13006827617300997907noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-27290920.post-72738955218369269212009-12-09T01:33:33.091-05:002009-12-09T01:33:33.091-05:00Wow, spammers are getting crafty: vague connection...Wow, spammers are getting crafty: vague connection to the post topic, flattery, the works.Stuart Candyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11847397597090443677noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-27290920.post-75283356862555438152009-12-08T13:35:46.128-05:002009-12-08T13:35:46.128-05:00Whenever i see the post like your's i feel tha...Whenever i see the post like your's i feel that there are still helpful people who share information for the help of others, it must be helpful for other's. thanx and good job.Dissertation Writing Helphttp://www.mastersdissertation.co.uk/noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-27290920.post-36058520787534783962009-11-24T20:59:42.360-05:002009-11-24T20:59:42.360-05:00Hi Clem, it's about the design and politics of...Hi Clem, it's about the design and politics of experiential scenarios.Stuart Candyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11847397597090443677noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-27290920.post-58191702606945264952009-11-24T16:15:22.748-05:002009-11-24T16:15:22.748-05:00what is your dissertation on?
Clem Bezoldwhat is your dissertation on?<br /> Clem Bezoldclem bezoldnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-27290920.post-65514887748187030962009-11-15T17:54:38.411-05:002009-11-15T17:54:38.411-05:00Hi John, thanks for your comment. Yes, I heard abo...Hi John, thanks for your comment. Yes, I heard about the new <a href="http://www.ocad.ca/programs/graduate_studies/mdes_strategic_foresight_innovation.htm" rel="nofollow">OCAD program</a> earlier this year, and understand it kicked off in September. Looking forward to hearing how it develops -- it's certainly a promising approach.<br /><br />The CCA's MBA in <a href="http://www.cca.edu/academics/graduate/design-mba" rel="nofollow">Design Strategy</a> (chaired by Nathan Shedroff, who invited me to give this lecture) is pursuing a similar mix.Stuart Candyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11847397597090443677noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-27290920.post-1697281285723963542009-11-15T11:51:42.278-05:002009-11-15T11:51:42.278-05:00Are you aware of the "Strategic Foresight and...Are you aware of the "Strategic Foresight and Innovation" program at the Ontartio College of Art and Design in Toronto, that is trying to be exactly this mix of design and futures (with a little business thrown in for good measure)?Johnhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12896413955408148961noreply@blogger.com