tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-27290920.post3934324990849061268..comments2024-01-06T03:54:46.267-05:00Comments on the sceptical futuryst: A tangled webStuart Candyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11847397597090443677noreply@blogger.comBlogger3125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-27290920.post-42122037127816384312008-08-20T07:34:00.000-04:002008-08-20T07:34:00.000-04:00There is a very strong bias to shorter term market...There is a very strong bias to shorter term markets. I think they average at about 1-2 months, although it varies by category. Sports has lots of short term markets. Science and technology have longer term markets. The key though is to incentivize trading on longer term markets. We are working on a couple ways to improve that.nigeleccleshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05776277592956236078noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-27290920.post-26509323052079082042008-08-14T10:44:00.000-04:002008-08-14T10:44:00.000-04:00Thanks for this, Nigel. I see from that link that ...Thanks for this, Nigel. I see from that link that you're quite a prolific predictor!<BR/><BR/>An advantage of tracking short-term events is of course that there are many more cycles, so you can build up a large corpus of predictions, and results, relatively quickly. Long Bets, being part of an institution dedicated to long-term responsibility, has a two-year minimum time horizon, intended to tune attention to slow/significant register as opposed to fast/trivial. What's tricky is that the web tends to thrive on the latter, and the former intrinsically offers less action. So the low liquidity and volume of traffic on long-term predictions in the market would be a challenge.<BR/><BR/>It'd be interesting to know a bit more on how those 2,000 questions (being tracked at hubdub) are distributed on the dimension of time horizon. What proportion are looking further ahead than, say, six months? Two years? Or a decade?Stuart Candyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11847397597090443677noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-27290920.post-80418535988322193212008-08-14T06:03:00.000-04:002008-08-14T06:03:00.000-04:00Hi Stuart,I also looked at the Web of Fate. I thou...Hi Stuart,<BR/><BR/>I also looked at the Web of Fate. I thought it was a neat visualisation but in the 'not sure exactly how I would use this' bucket. I think it is in its early stages to looking forwards to seeing how it develops.<BR/><BR/>A prediction registry is actually a key part of what we are developing at Hubdub. We are currently tracking about 50,000 predictions on 2,000 questions. Most users elect to make those predictions public. For example here are all my predictions: http://www.hubdub.com/users/nigeleccles/predictions<BR/><BR/>I'd love to hear more about the Long Now. Drop me an email some time to nigel [at] hubdub [dot] comAnonymousnoreply@blogger.com