Facing future

Arrested Development is one of the great, and way underrated, television comedies. Written, acted and edited to whip-smart perfection; if you like dark, surreal humour about family dysfunction you owe it to yourself to get familiar. I've just finished watching the first season again, which includes a typically bizarre exchange between Michael (Jason Bateman) and his twin sister Lindsay (Portia de Rossi) about one of Lindsay's doomed business ventures, "Mommy, What Will I Look Like?" (Bluthcyclopedia link).

Michael: Lindsay, I'm not just going to cut you a check so you can throw it away on another failed business, okay?

Lindsay: Hey! "Mommy, What Will I Look Like?" should have worked.

Narrator: Lindsay had once started a photo enhancing service, which gave new parents a glimpse at what their infants would look like in half a century.

Lindsay: You put an ugly kid in, you can't be surprised when an ugly adult comes out.





(Stills captured from Arrested Development, Season 1 Episode 22, "Let 'em Eat Cake")

In the same vein, and also scary as hell, I found a project called "Face of the Future" run by the School of Computer Science at the University of St Andrews, Scotland. You can upload photos and use the "Face Transformer", "Face Averager", or "Face Morpher" to manipulate them.

Here's me, shall we say, when I'm 64...


I'm not so sure about the full head of hair, but whatever shortcomings this has in terms of realism, it's still a bit unnerving to recognise the likeness in an image thus transformed.

No wonder "Mommy, What Will I look Like?" tanked.

Another World Without Oil photo essay (sort of)

As prices at the petrol pumps climb to record highs in Hawaii, and elsewhere, tongue-in-cheek images from a future "If gas prices continue to rise" are making the rounds...






It's interesting to see this issue handled humorously. Not that these are uproariously funny, but they certainly contrast in tone with the sombre harbingers of post-gas culture seen in the (unphotoshopped) series of images posted here a few months ago. I'm also reminded of World Without Oil writer Ken Eklund's comment to that photo essay: "the future objects that hit me in the gut are the repurposed ones: The Hummer car dealership that's now a refugee camp, the gutted Honda that now uses its alternator as a windmill..." Here, the improvised product life-extensions represented by the sail-car, and the vehicles pulled by horses and dogs, come across as a sort of satirical variation on that repurposing strategy.

(Christine Hansen sent these to the HRCFS listserv two days ago, and although plenty of blogs featured these in April and May [example], I haven't found an original source.)

The biggest long bet

Big news today at The Long Now Foundation as we join Fortune magazine in announcing the largest "long bet" yet: a million-dollar wager between investment guru Warren Buffett and New York money management firm Protégé Partners LLC. Buffett, a critic of expensive financial services, is betting that the returns of the market over the ten years from 02008 through 02017 (as reflected by the S&P 500, a widely used stock market index containing the stocks of 500 large, publicly held companies) will exceed the payout of the expert hedge fund investors after their fees, costs and expenses are subtracted.

Long Now board member Kevin Kelly elaborates:

Buffett's million dollar bet was made on Long Bets, the accountability mechanism founded in 2002 by Stewart Brand and myself, and operated by Long Now Foundation. The intention of Long Bets is to encourage responsibility in prediction-making (by keeping a public roster of predictions), to encourage long-term thinking (by offering a opportunity to shape a long-term bet), and to sharpen the logic of forecasting (by recording the logic of predictions and bets.)
[...]
The hope of Long Bets is that these public wagers will prompt people to consider the implications of current developments in the near-distant future -- and then to keep their attention on what happens.

Buffett's bet is an ideal Long Bet. It makes a huge difference to anyone who invests in stocks (as do a large percentage of the US, either directly or indirectly) whether a boring index fund yields as much as fancy private hedge funds. The answer either way would be a huge influential signal. When economist Julian Simon won the famous bet against biologist Paul Ehrlich (Simon betting that the long-term prices of commodity minerals would decrease over ten years; Ehrlich betting they would increase), his win essentially eradicated the argument of resource scarcity from the environmental debate. Environmentalists then shifted their concern to the many other issues needed to foster a healthy environment.

This bet has a similar potential. But as in all great bets, its outcome is uncertain.

At stake is not just the money -- all of which goes to charity regardless of who wins. The true currency of Long Bets is reputation, and real-name accountability has been a core principle from day one. As Kelly suggests via the Simon-Ehrlich comparison, if Buffett were to win, not only would the opinions of the folks at Protégé be called into question, but so too would their business model.

Which would, of course, be equally true even if the bet didn't exist: the performance claims of hedge fund managers can, in principle, be tracked and evaluated on whatever timeframe and against whatever criteria one likes, big bet or not. What this bet does is the same thing they all do: it puts a symbolic frame, and specific, tangible stakes, around an existing (or potential) debate, with the specific intention to put it to the test, and to learn from that process in a public way. This fact highlights what Long Bets is really all about. In a sense, everyone makes hundreds of bets per day: in an uncertain world, everything we do, or don't do, is loaded with some degree of risk. These bettors, along with many investors like them (and by extension, millions of others on whose behalf they act) have billions of dollars riding on their decisions already. However, putting a frame around this aspect of their effort creates a focus for discussion. It's a tool for directing attention in a particular way, and fuel for the type of conversation that we ought to be having more often.

What else is long-term thinking but the cultivation of an underdeveloped mode of attention?

I've been working with Long Now, and especially Long Bets, since 02006, and am delighted to see an unprecedented big bet draw attention to a worthy forum. Also, as concerned as I may be about the long-term fate of the hedge fund manager, I'm particularly looking forward to seeing what other -- perhaps even more momentous -- issues may follow this into the limelight.

(Here's the Fortune article, and the bet.)

Tomorrow's headlines

Speaking of future news, the Palo Alto-based futures consultancy Institute for the Future has a new project which playfully mounts hypothetical future newspaper headlines in a physical newsstand. Anyone can make a submission at the website The Daily Future, including a headline, subhead, lede, date, and image.

Early results were on display at the Bay Area Maker Faire at the start of May.

Image: Anthony Townsend, aGreatNotion's Flickr photostream

IFTF's Jason Tester, part of the team responsible for The Daily Future, has been among the key innovators in scenario communication strategy working at the intersection of futures and design for some years already (see, for instance, this Business Week article, and this post on "human-future interaction" from the IFTF blog).

Plans are afoot to add further functionality to the Daily Future website, including new headline formats and user voting. Meanwhile, those who can't make it to the Bay Area to see the newspaper box in person might content themselves with a visit instead to the Newspaper Clipping Generator (via Open the Future), which cranks out reasonably authentic-looking, if generic, images of future-news "artifacts" to order -- type in your newspaper title, headline, date, and story.


(Thanks Rosa!)

Near-future news: Hillary concedes

A columnist for the Wall Street Journal believes that it's time for Hillary Clinton to make a graceful exit from her long-running campaign against Barack Obama for the Democratic Party's presidential nomination in this year's election.

So he has written her concession speech for her, framing it as a news report from the near future.

The article begins:

For those who can't handle the suspense, we fast-forward the campaign to June 2, in Sioux Falls, South Dakota. A wire-service reporter, who has covered the Clinton campaign for 17 months, files this story:

Sen. Hillary Clinton of New York has decided to end her historic quest for the Democratic presidential nomination. The decision comes one day before the South Dakota and Montana primaries, and a day after she received an extraordinary petition from senior members of the Democratic Party.
[...]
A draft of Mrs. Clinton's concession speech was obtained from persons close to the campaign. It is to be delivered tomorrow evening in South Dakota at the Sheraton Sioux Falls convention center.

~Daniel Henninger, "Hillary's Concession Speech", Wall Street Journal, 22 May 02008.

This is a neat bit of punditry straddling legitimate journalistic activism and satire. It would be good to see more of these -- in-world projections of preferred scenarios -- in the media.

Put on a happy face

There's more than one way to skin a world.

The future isn’t all rosy. Increasing pollution, overpopulation, poverty, and climate change – society’s impact on the earth is reaching a breaking point. And while we may work to slow the onset of these catastrophes, reversing them is no longer an option. The question becomes, how do we live with the troubles we’ve already caused?
[...]
In a troubling future, these augmented reality devices would offer a new dimension - a virtual layer that could be used to “re-skin” the troubling outside world. A boundary between the wearer and the world around him, the device would become a sort of visual drug, used to make the world appear a better place – even if just for a moment.

~"frogConcept: A Digital Escape", frog design News, 16 May 02008

This is a concept design released last week by international creative consultancy frog design -- not dissimilar in promotional intent from other concepts blogged here in recent months.

Among frog's earlier forays into concept design...

The gelfrog (date unknown; image via oobject): "a futuristic laptop for teenagers. [...] The gelfrog converges style and function. The final product is rugged, yet flexible enough to be used in the classroom, in the urban jungle, or on the nature trail."

Tribons (date unknown): "These ultra lightweight and powerful systems connect kids with friends and family and through this provide emotional support which is necessary to compensate the trend of children growing up anonymously in cities and separation caused by increased mobility. [...] The wearable system uses future laser projection technology and is controlled by an intuitive 3D user interface."

Dattoos (02005): "The idea of DNA tattoos (Dattoos) is to use the body itself as hardware and interaction platform, through the use of minimally-invasive, recyclable materials. [...] The final concept aims to achieve a convergence of the following capabilities: DNA-reader and identification technology; nanosensors and interactive "touch reading" for finger tips (Braille); pattern and image recognition; self-learning and educational applications; living materials that change shape and feel; flexible OLED displays; full voice interaction, directional laser speakers; bionic nano chips; and cyborg components."

The Aura (02008): "The Aura concept brings together the professional, responsitory nature of the Western health care system with the personal, preventative focus of alternative therapies... The user never needs to be taught what to do with the object, but can interact with it on his [sic] own terms. While his skin is in contact with the device, different wavelengths of light and sound pass through his skin: infrared light measures blood flow, ultrasonic rays scan the resistance of his skin tissue, others capture the sound and speed of his heartbeat, the firmness of his grip."

In January, the group released a set of concepts under the nebulous rubric "The Role of Tech in 2020"...

The Personal Forcefield: "Fabrics of the future will move beyond cloth to technology-infused supermaterials. Imagine a web of woven conductive filaments and circuits made into everyday clothing that can build up enough kinetic energy generated through walking to be able to recharge a mobile phone. The same fabric has the potential to save up kinetic energy and create a personal forcefield which, when activated, could stun an attacker, unaware of the clothing’s hidden abilities."

The NanoDoor: "Nanobots, an emerging technology that works inside the body, will become a permanent fixture inside our bloodstreams from an early age. Homes will be equipped with a NanoDoor which, once entered, will reconfigure an individual’s nanobots and put the body in prime position for peak performance. Not only will such re-programming of the body’s functions serve to improve overall health, it could also be developed to enhance the body too. Going for a jog on the beach? Then grow some temporary skin-tread on your feet. Long journey ahead? Expand your bladder capacity to avoid unwanted stops on the way. Rock-climbing? Just add some length to your fingers."

The Eye Camera: "Miniaturization of electronic devices will make cameras so small that they could be easily implanted in any part of the body. A camera could be inserted into the eye, mimicking the user’s view as closely as possible and enhancing his or her vision. A wireless network connection and live content via a portal would allow others to log in and literally see the world through the user’s eyes, witnessing private and public activities."

The Digican: "Using a digital spraycan, users can "graffiti" anywhere in the world leaving messages, recommendations, and advertisements on anything from the ceiling of the Sistine Chapel to the Great Wall of China. With the help of an augmented reality screen that can be worn like a pair of glasses, users will be able to see the virtual graffiti. Ideal for building communities and sharing information, this is the ultimate worldwide wiki, transforming public spaces into places of public expression. Content ranging from personal expression to information on a location to video diaries can be graffitied without permanent damage to historical monuments."

First Life: "The growing network of closed-circuit TV surveillance has the potential to be harnessed to create an immense 3D “virtureal” world in which real people move and interact with virtual subscribers. These virtual subscribers can inhabit a real-time location anywhere in the world, witness real-time events, interact with other virtual inhabitants and communicate with people in an actual location. Special eyewear would allow people in an actual location to view and interact with virtual participants."

Now, of all the concept designs and videos we've seen in recent months, there are typically very few that engage the tricky question of what's actually going on in the world in the future portrayed -- even though that context would have no little bearing upon the viability of the proffered design.

What we have instead with frog's latest, interestingly grim, contribution to our gallery is less augmented reality than portable fantasy. (Of course, some people manage to effect this kind of ontological makeover -- like Voltaire's indefatigably upbeat Dr Pangloss -- with sheer force of personality. Others do it with drugs. Soma, anyone?) But the point I'm getting at is that the usual backdrop for gadget concept designs, if you can call it a backdrop, is as minimalist as can be: an empty black or white background, spartan office buildings or nameless, placeless, rolling green fields against a deep blue sky; the most neutral, washed out, content-free and non-committal of settings. An imaginal vacuum. The Digital Escape by contrast, offers a glimpse, hastily remedied, of a post-collapse future; the one usually concealed in favour of bland, detail-free backdrop; the one disowned and denied by design's chronically Panglossian gizmo parade.

It is rare because it deliberately confronts, and helpfully seeks to mitigate, the depressing prospect of an outside world too horrible to face unmediated: an apocalyptic landscape dressed in more palatable garb. One could ask by what means in a collapsed society such intensive digital content would be delivered to these nifty neo-cowboy bandannas, these anonymising cybermasks, but of course their practicability isn't the point.

There's something resonant, or at least symptomatic, I think, about this fantasy injunction (however tongue-in-cheek) to put on a happy face, to don a mask, in preference to engaging -- and designing -- deeper alternatives to our most unpleasant possible paths. Still, it's unusual because it seems most product design, like most urban planning, and most corporate and government forecasting in Western economies, rests on the cosy assumption of business as usual (with perhaps a concession to contingency in the form of alternative growth rates -- low, medium, and high).

But take a deep breath, and look what happens when the mask slips.

[I got back to Honolulu last night after three weeks on the East Coast, with plenty to blog about, so watch this space...

Also, thanks for the link Natron.]